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Lebanon: Opinion Poll Reveals Public View of Government, Assassinations Beirut Center Conducts Opinion Poll on New Government; Seventy Three Percent Are Dissatisfied with Lahhud's Performance; Awn More Appealing Successor; The General and al-Hariri More Reliable in Leading Reform; Sixty Six Percent with the Resistance and 73 Percent in Favor of Ja'ja's Release
AL-SAFIR
Wednesday, July 20, 2005 T07:00:28Z
Journal Code: 406 Language: ENGLISH Record Type: FULLTEXT
Document Type: FBIS Translated Text
Word Count: 1,986

The Beirut Information and Research Center has conducted an opinion poll bearing number 57 to explore the Lebanese public's view of the challenges facing the new parliament. The poll was conducted between 28th June and 2nd July 2005 and involved a sample population of 800 persons distributed on various villages and townships. Members of the sample were selected randomly and in proportion with the size of sectarian blocs in these Lebanese governorates and their distribution on villages and townships. The study was careful to observe the male-female and sectarian affiliation proportions, so that the sample included all sects and religious schools in proportion with the size of each sect in the constituency. The study also involved various age groups. All the forms and information were analyzed according to the Access program and the VBAhSQL technique. Error ratio did not exceed 5. A group of specialists undertook the analysis of the data.

: Do you think that the coming government is capable of treating political and economic problems?

Answers indicated that the majority of the sample population (82.2 percent) believes that the coming government will be able to resolve Lebanon's economic and social problems. However, 17.8 percent believe that the government will not be able to do so.

The ratio was distributed almost equally between Muslims and Christians. On the Muslim side, 81.3 percent said they trusted the government's ability to treat problems, while 18.7 percent held the opposite view. On the Christian side, some 83.3 percent trust the government's ability, while 16.7 percent do not trust that the government is capable of treating problems.

Results indicated that the highest ratio of those who displayed confidence in the government's ability to treat problems was registered among Druze. Some 97.7 percent of the Druze population trusts the government's ability, while 2.3 percent question the government's ability. The Roman Catholic sect took second place, with 95 percent confident in the government's ability and 5 percent questioning that ability. Armenians took third place, with 90.9 percent displaying confidence in the government's ability and 9.1 percent having no confidence in the government.

The Maronite sect took fourth place, with 83.1 percent confident in the government's ability and 16.9 percent holding the opposite view. The Sunnis took fifth place, with 82.4 percent saying they trust this government's ability to treat problems and 17.6 percent withholding that trust. The Shi'ite sect occupied sixth place, with 77.5 percent trusting the government and 22.5 percent not trusting it.

The Greek Orthodox sect occupied the last place, with 73.8 percent believing in the government's ability and 26.8 questioning its ability to treat problems.

: Who in your view will lead the reform process?

Results indicated that the highest percentage of the sample population (26.3 percent) believes that Colonel Michel Awn will lead the reform process. The Future current came next with 19.2 percent, then Hizballah 6.4 percent, the Development and Liberation Bloc 4.6 percent, and finally the Lebanese Forces 2 percent.

For Muslims, the Future current came first with 26.9 percent of the votes, followed by Michel Awn with 11.2 percent, Hizballah with 10.7 percent, and finally the Development and Liberation Bloc with 7.7 percent.

For Christians, Michel Awn won 48.9 percent of the vote, followed by the Future current 7.7 percent, and finally the Lebanese Forces with 5 percent.

Some 23.8 percent of Shi'ites said Hizballah would lead the reform march, 17.3 percent chose the Development and Liberation Bloc, and 8.6 percent chose General Awn.

Some 49.1 percent of Sunnis chose the Future current and 14.5 percent chose General Awn, while 9.1 percent of Druze said they relied on the Future current in reform and 7.2 percent chose General Awn.

As for Maronites, 43.3 percent believe that Awn would lead reform, 12.2 percent believe that the Future current would lead, and 6.3 percent chose the Lebanese Forces.

The majority of Greek Orthodox (57 percent) believes that Awn will lead reform and 2.1 percent believe that it will be the Future current.

Some 11.6 percent of Roman Catholics chose the Lebanese Forces as leader of the reform process, while 82 percent of Armenians chose Awn and 3 percent chose the Future current.

: Do you support calls to dismiss President Emile Lahhud?

Results indicated that 56.5 percent do not support calls to dismiss Lahhud, while 43.5 percent support his dismissal. The votes were distributed among Muslims and Christians in the following manner:

The highest percentage of Christian votes opposed to the dismissal of the president was 66.9 percent, against 33.1 percent in favor of his dismissal. As for Muslims, 50.4 percent were in favor of his dismissal against 49.6 percent who were not in favor.

Some 72.7 percent of Armenians were against Lahhud's dismissal, followed by Maronites at 67.6 percent, then Shi'ites at 64 percent, Sunnis at 40.4 percent, Catholics at 40.1 percent, Greek Orthodox at 31 percent, and finally Druze at 24.9 percent.

' Are you satisfied with President Lahhud's performance?

Results indicated that the majority of the population sample (73.5 percent) was discontent dissatisfied with President Lahhud's performance against 26.5 percent who are content with his performance. The ratio was distributed among Muslims and Christians in the following manner:

Some 83 percent of Christians said they were not satisfied with President Lahhud's performance, while 17 percent said they were satisfied. Some 67.1 percent of Muslims were dissatisfied, while 32.9 percent were satisfied with the president's performance.

The highest ratio of dissatisfaction with President Lahhud's performance was registered by Roman Catholics (95 percent), followed by Maronites (87.5 percent), Druze (86.4), Greek Orthodox (82.7 percent), Sunnis (82.4 percent), Shi'ites (46.9), and finally Armenians (45.5 percent).

Who do you suggest as substitute for Lahhud?

Results showed Michel Awn as the first candidate with 22.3 percent of votes, followed by Former Deputy Nasib Lahhud with 14.2 percent, Deputy Butrus Harb with 13.4 percent, Former Minister Sulayman Franjiyah with 8.5 percent, Former Deputy Ghattas Khuri with 2 percent, and finally Dr Samir Ja'ja with 1.2 percent of the votes.

The ratio of votes was distributed among Muslims and Christians in the following manner: Former Deputy Nasib Lahhud won 15.8 percent of Muslim votes, followed by Butrus Harb with 12.1 percent, General Awn with 11.11 percent, Former Minister Franjiyah with 8.6 percent, and finally Former Deputy Ghattas Khuri with 3.3 percent of votes.

As for Christians, Awn won the highest number of votes with 39.2 percent, followed by Nasib Lahhud with 11.7 percent, Deputy Butrus Harb with 11.4 percent, Franjiyah with 8.5 percent, and finally Samir Ja'ja with 5.4 percent of Christian votes.

The ratios were distributed according to sect in the following manner: Awn won the highest number of votes among Greek Orthodox (55 percent). They were followed by Roman Catholics at 45 percent, Maronites at 35.9 percent, Armenians at 18.2 percent, Sunnis at 16.61 percent, and finally Shi'ites at 7.9 percent.

Nasib Lahhud won the highest support among Druze (31.8 percent), followed by Sunnis (20.1 percent), Roman Catholics (15 percent), Druze (13.3 percent), Greek Orthodox (10.2 percent), Shi'ites (8.5 percent), and finally Armenians (4.5 percent).

Butrus Harb won the highest number of Maronite votes (11.5 percent), followed by Sunnis (10.2 percent), Greek Orthodox (8 percent), and finally Armenians (3.9 percent).

Samir Ja'ja only won 5.5 percent of Maronite votes and 5 percent of Roman Catholic votes, while Ghattas Khuri won 11.4 percent of Druze votes and 4.9 percent of Sunni votes.

Are in favor of releasing Samir Ja'ja from jail?

Results showed that the majority of the sample population was in favor of releasing Samir Ja'ja. Some 71.3 percent answered "yes" and 28.7 percent answered "no" to the question.

We observed that 83.7 percent of Christians were in favor of Ja'ja's release, while 16.3 percent were against his release. As for Muslims, 64 percent were in favor of his release while 37 percent were against a pardon.

The highest percentage of votes in favor of Ja'ja's release was registered among Armenians (95.5 percent), while 4.5 percent were against his release. The Roman Catholics came next, with 95 percent in favor and 5 percent against. Maronites came third, with 91.2 percent in favor and 8.8 percent against. Druze took fourth place, with 93.2 percent in favor and 6.8 percent against. Roman Catholics came fifth, with 61.9 percent in favor and 37.1 percent against Ja'ja's release. Sunnis came sixth, with 63.2 percent in favor and 36.8 percent against. Finally, 56.7 percent of Shi'ites was in favor and 43.3 percent were against Ja'ja's release.

Views varied in terms of responsibility for recent assassinations in Lebanon. However, it was observed that a high ratio of the sample population traced these assassinations back to Israeli and US devices. The poll showed that 25.9 percent of the sample population pinned the blame on Lebanese-Syrian intelligence devices (either jointly or individually), while 38 percent traced assassinations back to US and Israeli intelligence organs (either jointly or individually). Some 6.4 percent of the sample population pinned responsibility on joint Lebanese foreign devices, while 29.7 percent refused to pin responsibility on any specific party.

As to how Muslims and Christians pinned that responsibility, the poll indicated that 47.9 percent of Muslims pinned the responsibility on Israeli and US devices, 21.3 percent blamed it on Lebanese or Syrian devices or both, and 6 percent blamed it on Lebanese-foreign intelligence devices. Some 24.8 percent of Muslims refused to pin responsibility on any specific party.

As for Christians in general, responsibility for assassinations was mainly blamed on Lebanese or Syrian intelligence organs, or both, by 32.9 percent of the Christian sample population, while 23.2 percent blamed it on Israeli and US intelligence organs and 7.1 percent blamed it on Lebanese-foreign intelligence organs. Some 36.8 percent of Christians declined to pin responsibility on any specific party.

When it comes to pinning responsibility on Lebanese and Syrian intelligence organs, Druze came first with 43.1 percent. They were followed by Roman Catholics with 37.7 percent, Armenians 36.3 percent, Sunnis 28.7 percent, Maronites 27.8 percent, Greek Orthodox 25.3 percent, and finally Shi'ites 9.7 percent.

As for pinning the blame on US and Israeli intelligence organs, the Shi'ite sect came first with 77.5 percent. They were followed by Armenians at 59.1 percent, Sunnis 26.3 percent, Greek Orthodox at 24.7 percent, Maronites at 18.3 percent, Druze at 11.4 percent, and finally Catholics at 10.3 percent.

As for accusing Lebanese-foreign intelligence organs, the Orthodox sect came first with 10.2 percent. They were followed by Maronites at 9 percent, Sunnis 7.4 percent, Shi'ites 4.9 percent, Druze 4.5 percent, and finally Catholics at 1.9 percent.

Are you in favor of disarming the resistance?

The poll showed that 66.1 percent of the sample population answered "no" while 33.9 percent answered "yes" to that question.

The highest ratio of opposition to disarming the resistance came from Islamic sects, where 84.7 percent of Muslims were against and 15.3 percent was in favor.

The highest ratio of votes in favor of disarming the resistance came from Christians, where 61.9 percent were in favor and 38.1 percent against disarming the resistance.

The highest ratio of opposition came from the Shi'ite sect, with 95.7 percent against and 4.3 percent in favor of disarming the resistance. Sunnis took second place, with 80.1 percent against and 19.9 percent in favor of disarming the resistance. Armenians came third, with 63.6 percent against and 36.4 in favor of disarming the resistance.

The Greek Orthodox sect took fourth place, where 59.5 percent were against and 40.5 percent in favor of disarming the resistance. The Druze sect came fifth, with 29.4 percent against and 40.9 percent in favor of disarming the resistance. Maronites came sixth, with 29.4 percent against and 70.6 percent in favor of disarming the resistance.

Finally, 20 percent of Roman Catholics were against disarming the resistance and 80 percent were in favor.

  

Schedule of Final Poll Result

 

General

Muslim

Christian

Sunnis

Shi'ite

Druze

Maronite

 Catholic

Orthodox

Armenians

Question One

Do you think that the coming government is capable of treating political and economic problems?

Yes

82.2 %

81.3%

83.3%

82.4%

77.5%

97.7%

83.1%

95%

73.8%

90.9%

No

17.8%

18.7%

16.7%

17.6

22.5%

2.3%

16.9%

5%

26.8%

9.1%

 

Question Two

 

Who in your view will lead the reform process?

Colonel Michel Awn

26.3%

11.2%

48.9%

14.5%

8.6%

7.2%

43.3%

0%

57%

82%

Future current

19.2%

26.9%

7.7%

49.1

0%

9.1%

12.2%

0%

2.1%

3%

Hizballah

6.4%

10.7%

0%

0%

23.8%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Development and Liberation Bloc

4.6%

7.7%

0%

0%

17.3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Lebanese Forces

2%

0%

5%

0%

0%

0%

6.3%

11.6%

0%

0%

Question Three

Do you support calls to dismiss President Emile Lahhud?

Yes

43.5%

50.4%

33.1%

59.6%

36%

75.1%

32.4%

27.3%

31%

27.3%

No

56.5%

49.6%

66.9%

40.4%

64%

24.9%

67.6%

72.7%

69%

72.7%

Question  Four

Are you satisfied with President Lahhud's performance?

Yes

73.5%

67.1%

83%

82.4%

46.9%

86.4%

87.5%

95%

82.7%

45.5%

No

26.5%

32.9%

17%

17.6%

53.1%

13.6%

12.5%

95%

82.7%

45.5%

 

Question Five

 

 

Who do you suggest as substitute for Lahhud?

 

Michel Awn

22.3%

11.1%

39.2%

16.1%

7.9%

2.3%

35.9%

45%

55%

18.2%

Nasib Lahhud

14.2%

15.8%

11.7%

20.1%

8.5%

31.8%

13.3%

5%

10.2%

4.5%

Butrus Harb

13.4%

12.1%

11.4%

13.8%

8.8%

20.5%

10.4%

25%

9.5%

4%

Sulayman Franjiyah

8.5%

8.6%

8.5%

10.2%

9.1%

0%

11.5%

0%

8%

3.9%

Ghattas Khuri

2%

3.3%

0%

4.9%

0%

11.4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Samir Ja'ja

1.2%

0%

2.9%

0%

0%

0%

5.2%

5%

0%

%

Question Six

Are in favor of releasing Samir Ja'ja from jail?

Yes

71.3%

63%

83.7%

63.2%

56.7%

93.2%

91.2%

95%

61.9%

95.5%

No

28.7%

37%

16.3%

36.8%

43.3%

6.8%

8.8%

5%

37.1%

4.5%

Question Seven

Views varied in terms of responsibility for recent assassinations in Lebanon

Lebanese-Syrian intelligence devices

25.9%

21.3%

32.9%

28.7%

9.7%

43.1%

27.8%

37.7%

25.3%

36.3%

Israeli and US devices

38%

47.9%

23.2%

26.3%

77.5%

11.4%

18.3%

10.3%

24.7%

59.1%

Lebanese foreign devices

6.4%

6%

7.1%

7.4%

4.9%

4.5%

9%

1.9%

10.2%

0%

any specific party

29.7%

24.8%

36.8%

37.6%

7.9%

41%

44.9%

50.1%

39.8%

4.6%

Question Eigth

Are you in favor of disarming the resistance?

Yes

66.1%

84.7%

38.1%

80.1%

95.7%

59.1%

29.4%

20%

59.5%

63.6%

No

33.9%

15.3%

61.9%

19.9%

4.3%

40.9%

70.6%

80%

40.5%

36.4%

 

 

(Description of Source: Beirut Al-Safir (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic -- Independent and leftist, espousing Arab nationalist views; root URL: http://www.assafir.com )

Compiled and distributed by NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce. All rights reserved.
City/Source: Beirut
DIALOG Update Date: 20050720; 04:35:41 EST
Descriptors: Domestic Political; International Political; Terrorism
Geographic Codes: ISR; LBN; USA
Geographic Names: Israel; Lebanon; United States; Middle East; Americas; North Americas
NewsEdge Document Number: 200507201477.1_94e6074bd1699f3e
Original Source Language: Arabic
Region: Middle East; Americas

World News Connection®
Compiled and distributed by NTIS. All rights reserved.
Dialog® File Number 985 Accession Number 210900210

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